On December 25th, 2009, something quite remarkable happened at Amazon.com
For the first time in Amazon’s history, the sale of e-books overtook the sale of physical books. And on that specific day the paper book downslide officially began. The Kindle officially put the early set of nails in the coffin. What the Kindle didn’t complete, Apple’s iPad (and other book readers) will be sure to finish off.
But surely books won’t die.
The death of books have been exaggerated before and hey, they’re still around. Surely books aren’t going to die in a hurry.
Books won’t die; the paper book will die.
Less than ten years ago, it wasn’t uncommon to load up your car with dozens of CDs as you went on a trip. It wasn’t uncommon to have a stack of CDs in your lounge. Where are those CDs now? They’re all nicely ripped and sitting in your iPod, iPhone or at the very least on your computer. Only a dinosaur carries CDs around these days.
That dinosaur story applies perfectly to books
So you’re headed on vacation, and you pick up a few books to read. You want to beef up on a specific topic? Again, you pick up a few books from the store or from the library. In a few years from now, that idea of lugging around books will seem kinda quaint.
Why would you want to have dozens of books stacked around taking up space, when you can have them all on your Kindle or your iPad? Sounds too sci-fi? Well the librarians don’t think so. Across the planet, libraries have latched onto the digital media. One of the early libraries to lend out Kindles and Sony Readers was North Carolina State University Library. And the list of libraries giving out Kindles, Sony Readers and e-book readers continues to grow (here’s a partial list).
If this revolution to digital media seems unreal, Apple just wait till devices like the iPad catch on.
Kindles set out to allow you to download books or newspapers from anywhere. This means you could read the New York Times or just about any book in the Kindle store without having any access to a wireless hotspot or internet connection. However in order to keep this download small, all the fancy colour and graphics were stripped out of the Kindle display. This meant of course that you were largely restricted to text in black and white.
Apple’s iPad has no such restriction
Not only will the iPad work via 3G, but it will also easily work through wireless. Assuming Apple allows all of the apps to work on the iPad (as it does on the iPhone) what you now have is the ability to experience the best of both worlds. If you choose you can simply download the Kindle app onto your iPad and read a book (in a nice big font and size). If you choose to ignore the black and white, you may be able to download the book in full colour (Yes, publishers are already queuing up to have their books on the iPad). As if that were not dramatic enough, you’d be able to do it wirelessly through a choice of 3G or indeed over your wireless hotspot.
Digital books have existed for a while, but there’s always been a problem
You could indeed take your PDF and try and read on a flight. Or you could download a magazine from Zinio.com and read it in bed. But you always had to contend with a laptop at the very least. And I don’t know about you, but a computer doesn’t exactly come close to the happiness you get when reading a book. On a Kindle or iPad that frustration goes away. Now instead of lugging a computer to bed, I can prop up my iPad and voila—I have the very same, if not an enhanced experience.
Enhanced? How could it be enhanced?
Already you can bookmark pages on a Kindle. That should be standard on a tablet device of the future. Underlining, scribbling on the book, doodling etc., is just a matter of time. But that’s just the reading experience. What really kills the paper book is the storage experience. I can now store whatever I want in a tiny little device. And find the darned thing when I want to find it (As it is, I already buy books and store them on my iPhone Kindle app, just for reference purposes). With the iPad and future devices, this storage and convenience will become standard fare.
This news isn’t for the sentimental folks
Most of us who are sentimental about paper and books will resist even the thought of the ‘death’ of paper books. This column isn’t for the sentimentalists. It’s about business and how it will affect your business. If you’re an author, or if your company puts out documentation, it’s a matter of time before you will need to put your information in an ePub (e-publishing) format. And no, it’s not even PDF, though PDF may well do for the short term. You may be so in love with the paper book that you may see information like this as being overly sensational. And again you’re missing the point. The point is simply this:
1) Your business needs to understand the e-book format.
2) It needs to be ready to publish in the ePub format.
3) It may well turn out that you can continue to print a paper book as a collector’s item or a special bonus, but the paper book will simply become unfeasible in the long run no matter how sentimental you feel about it.
The paper book will fade away.
Film in cameras faded away. CDs faded away. Horse and carts faded away. And paper books will have it’s own ride into the sunset—still around—but niche and largely marginalized.
You may not agree with this assessment. But you have little choice in how history unfolds.
And Christmas Day of 2009 changed history forever.
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Paper books won’t go anywhere. And here are the reasons why:
It’s 1000 times more pleasant to read book on paper rather on screen. For gods sake, I’m spending too much time on screen already, so at least I can read a book to get away from it (I’m a webmaster).
Paper book is a perfect gift, you can even write your own words to the person you’re giving it.
So saying that paper books will go away is the same as saying that people won’t go to cienema anymore and woth movies on XBOX, or nobody will go fishing, or anybody won’t play basketball in the yard, but instead will play NBA 2010 on XBOX.
CDs, DVDs lost over ipods, iphones because they were used to store the same (digital) media (same user experience), but ipods are alot more convient for this.
You can’t make the same comparison on paper books (analog media) and ebooks (digital media, be it on DVD or on ipod) – its 2 completely different experiences.
Of course, some peaple prefer paper, some e-books.
I think, whose who read just because they have to read in case to get knowledge – will buy e-books (technical docs, how to be rich in 5 min. etc).
Whose who like reading masterpieces of written word will choose paper books.
I don’t want to refute this point, but two authors I gave a book to, asked me if I could have a Kindle or PDF version. There’s no doubt the paper book will continue to exist. But in a way it will die. And the influence it has wielded will continue to decline. It’s largely influence that is going to matter here.
E-book verses paper book:
There is a media term called: ‘Media Dependancy’.
This is when content needs to be modified to suit the medium used. eg: A novel is made into a movie. The movie version has scenes deleated but has music. The same concept can also apply to e-books. They don’t have the same sensory appeal as a paper book but you can put in links etc.
“Quality is always in the minority”
Ebooks are like anything else. You sometimes have to sift alot of dirt to find gold. As long as your ebooks have insightful content and great presentation, readers will find you.
I am surprised at how many people are vehemently defending paper books. It reminds of several instances in my past of technology debates with people who were 100% convinced that “new stuff” could never replace the old ways of doing things.
Instance #1 – In high school I worked for a large daily newspaper taking classified ads over the phone. All of us in the call center typed the ads on typewriters. Yes, we’re going back many years. One day management said they were considering ordering computers for us. Everyone except me (I was the youngest in the department), was dead set against giving up their typewriters. They were sure computers could never replace typewriters. Um, yeah right.
Instance #2 – I worked for an ad agency. The graphic designers all did their designs and layouts by hand on paper. The writers at the ad agency had just switched from typewriters to PCs. I remember telling the 4 graphic designers that soon they’d be on PCs too. They unanimously said, “No way!” They argued that there was something magical about putting pencil to paper, and a PC could never replace that. Um, yeah right.
Once e-readers provide the means for e-books to offer an enhanced reading experience over paper books, such as what Apple is promising with its iPad, people will make the switch and never look back.
Yes it is true people sometimes can’t imagine that one technology can replace another. But was the radio replaced by TV, or the propeller replaced by the jet engine.
The technolgies that are replaced are often the input devices like typewriters and pencils. But output devices seldom die. They are the media devices. These output devices only change their role in our lives.
People aren’t blindly defending the paper book. They just realize that it’s place in the marketplace will change because of ebooks but no medium has ever been replaced.
Hmm, that’s interesting. I’m not quite clear why output devices can’t be replaced. I’d see a DVD player as an output device, but I’m sure it would be replaced in time (if not in a few years). A lot of devices are input and output. What is a computer? Input or output? A case could be made for both, couldn’t it?
However the main point of the article isn’t whether the book will go or not. But rather how to get ready for the next wave.
I have to say I was in this very boat when blogs came along. I kept insisting that blogs were a waste of time. Today we know better.
I have to say I’ve been so wrong before, that I had to put this out for those who want to be on the cusp of the wave when it arrives. For those who insist on the book being dominant, they will find that it will continue its dominance for a while, and then get marginalised. That’s when things will really hurt.
This article isn’t so much about today. It’s more about how to get ready for 2012. And of course time will tell
And just to be sure, I’m learning all I can about ePub (yes, you can use InDesign to create ePub files) and also working on a strategy to have our books ready for Kindle—but mostly for the Apple Store.
Firstly I would like to say Sean how much I have enjoy the exchange of perspectives here.
Yes I can imagine DVD players in danger of disappearing to the shadows someday (like the 8mm projector). But there will always be a ‘movie player’.
The computer is an input and output device. But for the content creator it’s value is that it is an imput device. For a passive audience it’s mainly an output device.
Ofcourse your blog proves that readers don’t have to be passive readers.
Now to the future: I too am looking to the day when I can take advantage of the growing ebook marketplaces as an author. But I’m worried for anyone who publishes there own ebooks without a wider income stratedy to support themselves. Without other related income streams and marketing strategies that suit them.
We all need to look at not just all the possible digital products out there but physical products, speaking, couching, community membership, affiliate relationships. And marketing with podcasts, blogs, newletters, interviews, articles and emails.
Ebooks are a great start but not a stratedy in it’s self.
Sean, thanks again for your thoughts.
No it’s not a strategy in itself.
But be aware that it’s a great strategy all the same. Many businesses such as ours would not exist as it does, if it wasn’t for one ebook (16 pages too) that we published in the year 2002.
Some businesses have grown on the basis of single medium. Some chose video. Some just had one app. And some rode on the blog wave. In every tech cycle there is the chance to ride the wave, and in every cycle there are people like me who say: Ah, how can that work?
That is a mistake.
Instead of defending the paper book (which from the looks of things needs no defence if indeed it is to continue its domination) spend some time learning about the new phenomenon.
That way you won’t get caught flat footed when the time comes to actually use the technology of the day.
Hi,
After selling and developing digital editions since 2005, we as one of the pioneers in this market have been frustrated at the slow take up of digital products but over the years proven that clients are receptive for instant delivery and are willing to read on both the desktop and laptops.
It’s great news to read about the great advances in the hardware and software recently for reading books and magazines and think this market is going to be an exciting on at that.
The technology and it’s delivery is ever changing, the quality of the content should not.
Kind regards,
Anthony
Managing Director
DIGITALNEWSAGENT.COM
I am an avid reader. I agree that the feel and smell of a brand new book can always beat the feel of an ereader device. But, I do agree that no one, even an avid physical book-lover like me, should doubt that a change will be occuring in the near future.
We can defend physical books, but that would be ignoring the inevitable. The fact that in the near future, more and more people will be buying ebooks for convenience. But, avid booklovers can keep the books they have and back them up on the devices. Just in case something ever happened. That way, we still get those books we loved and we are part of this new wave of technology.
I may be only 19 years old, but I believe that we can have the memories of real books, and still be in the new ebooks.
I do feel that books will never die, because of the sentimentality of the true booklovers who will never let it die. But I also believe that we should not worry ourselves with the decline of use in physical books.
As long as there is some documentation of stories, i.e. the ereaders, and the future generations can use these stories to travel to faraway lands using their imagination, that is the most important thing. There will always be stories. Just be happy that there is a technology that helps to bring these wonderful stories to future generations. The stories that made us love reading.
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